Key Points
- Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a small margin in national polls.
- Harris saw a slight boost following the first debate in Pennsylvania.
- The race is highly competitive in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
- Polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, raising questions about their reliability.
- The election will be decided by who wins the battleground states, not just national popularity.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: A Presidential Race on a Knife-Edge
As U.S. voters prepare to head to the polls on November 5 to choose their next president, the race has evolved into an unexpected contest. Initially, the 2024 election was expected to be a rematch of 2020, pitting current President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump. However, in a dramatic twist in July, President Biden announced he would not seek re-election and threw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
With Biden’s withdrawal, Harris stepped into the spotlight, turning the race into a historic showdown—will America see its first female president, or will Trump return for a second term?
The National Polls: Harris Holds a Slim Lead
Kamala Harris has maintained a narrow lead over Donald Trump in national polling averages. After Biden’s exit, which came as polls consistently showed him trailing Trump, Harris swiftly hit the campaign trail and began to close the gap. Her steady presence in the race has allowed her to develop and maintain a small but consistent lead.
The two candidates met for their first head-to-head debate in Pennsylvania on September 10, an event watched by over 67 million Americans. Post-debate snap polls indicated that most viewers believed Harris outperformed Trump. The debate slightly widened her lead, from a 2.5-point margin to 2.9 points a week later.
This increase was largely due to a decline in Trump’s polling numbers following the debate. His average had been rising steadily, but the debate resulted in a minor setback for his campaign.
Debate Impact: Has Harris Gained Ground?
While Harris has maintained her slim lead since Biden’s exit, the margins remain tight. Most polls conducted after the Pennsylvania debate suggest a minor uptick in support for Harris. However, the small shifts in national polling don’t necessarily predict the final outcome of the election.
Despite Harris’s lead, national polls are only part of the story. Due to the U.S. electoral system, the real fight for the White House will be decided in the battleground states.
The Importance of Battleground States
The U.S. election system relies on the electoral college, where each state is allocated a certain number of votes based on its population. A candidate needs to secure 270 out of 538 electoral votes to win. While there are 50 states, most consistently vote for one party or another, leaving a handful of “battleground” states that could swing the election either way.
Currently, the race is particularly tight in seven key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Polling data from these states is less frequent than national polls, making it harder to discern a clear leader. However, in several of these critical states, less than a percentage point separates Harris and Trump. Pennsylvania, with its significant number of electoral votes, remains especially crucial.
In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, breaking the Democratic “blue wall” and securing his path to victory. Biden retook these states in 2020, and if Harris can do the same, she will be well-positioned to win the presidency.
Poll Reliability: Can We Trust the Numbers?
While polls provide a snapshot of the race, recent history has shown that they aren’t always accurate. In both 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated Trump’s support, especially in key battleground states. Polling organizations are working to refine their methods, but challenges remain.
Pollsters must make educated guesses about who will actually show up to vote on election day, and factors like voter turnout and last-minute shifts in public opinion can heavily influence the final results.
Conclusion: A Race Too Close to Call
As Election Day nears, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remain neck and neck. National polls suggest Harris has a slight edge, but the tight competition in battleground states means the outcome is far from certain. With both campaigns focused on swaying undecided voters, the U.S. could be on the verge of electing its first woman president—or witnessing the return of Donald Trump to the White House.