In a bold statement with significant implications, Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn a new “red line” regarding the use of long-range missiles in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Addressing the issue in St. Petersburg, Putin warned that any Western provision of such missiles to Ukraine, if used to strike Russian territory, would be interpreted as “direct participation” by NATO countries in the war. This, he asserted, would fundamentally alter the nature of the conflict, effectively transforming it into a direct confrontation between NATO, the USA, European states, and Russia.
Putin’s warning highlights the increasing tension and potential for escalation in the conflict. He claimed that Ukraine would need Western satellite data and NATO personnel to effectively use these long-range missiles, suggesting that any strikes on Russian soil would involve significant Western input. This latest declaration is part of a broader pattern of Russia setting and reacting to “red lines” throughout the conflict.
The new ultimatum comes against the backdrop of a history of similar warnings from Putin. On February 24, 2022, when he launched what he called a “special military operation”—the full-scale invasion of Ukraine—Putin issued a stark warning to any external parties considering intervention. He threatened severe repercussions for those who posed threats to Russia, a warning that was largely dismissed by the West. Since then, Western nations have provided Ukraine with an array of military support, including tanks, advanced missile systems, and most recently, F-16 fighter jets.
The situation has been further complicated by recent accusations from Russia that Ukraine has used American ATACMS missiles to target Crimea, a region annexed by Russia. This has fueled accusations from Russian officials and state media that the West is actively waging war against Russia, despite Russia being the aggressor in the conflict. Putin’s latest remarks suggest that the use of Western missile systems to strike internationally recognized Russian territory would represent a significant escalation.
Putin’s response to such an escalation remains ambiguous. He stated that Russia would “take corresponding decisions based on the threats” posed, without detailing specific actions. However, earlier in June, Putin hinted at potential responses, including bolstering Russia’s air defense systems and possibly supplying comparable weapons to adversaries of the West. This strategy aligns with a broader pattern of countering Western actions with similar measures.
The possibility of a revised nuclear doctrine in response to Western actions has also been suggested. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, recently announced that the country is considering changes to its nuclear doctrine due to what it perceives as escalating threats from Western adversaries. This move underscores the high stakes and the potential for increased tension if the conflict continues to escalate.
The UK’s Prime Minister Starmer and Foreign Secretary Lammy arriving in the US
Amid these developments, Sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK Labour Party, is in Washington for discussions with President Biden, where Ukraine and the issue of long-range missiles are expected to be central topics. Starmer has emphasized Russia’s responsibility for initiating the conflict and has called for Russia to take steps to end it.
As Western leaders deliberate their next moves, they face a critical decision: whether to risk further escalating the conflict by allowing Ukraine to use Western long-range missiles or to reassess the restrictions on such weapons. This decision will have far-reaching implications for the conflict’s trajectory and the international response to Russia’s actions.
The tension surrounding this new “red line” illustrates the volatile nature of the conflict and the delicate balance of international diplomacy. As the situation evolves, the global community will closely monitor how these developments influence the ongoing struggle between Russia and Ukraine.